![]() ![]() But the models are not perfect, Marvel says. Ice is melting, seas are rising, and droughts are becoming more frequent in some areas. The greenhouse effect is still warming the planet. Overall, climate models remain incredibly successful research tools, and nothing about this “too hot” generation invalidates the tenets of climate science, says Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and co-author of the commentary. ![]() “We must move away from the naïve idea of model democracy.” Instead, he and his colleagues call for a model meritocracy, prioritizing, at times, results from models known to have more realistic warming rates. “We need to use a slightly different approach,” says Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payment services company Stripe and lead author of the commentary. Researchers should no longer simply use the average of all the climate model projections, which can result in global temperatures by 2100 up to 0.7☌ warmer than an estimate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scientists need to get much choosier in how they use model results, a group of climate scientists argues in a commentary published today in Nature. That has resulted in a parade of “faster than expected” results that threatens to undermine the credibility of climate science, some researchers fear. Although modelmakers are adapting to this reality, researchers who use the model projections to gauge the impacts of climate change have yet to follow suit. But even the modelmakers acknowledge that many of these models have a glaring problem: predicting a future that gets too hot too fast. A third says a mass ocean extinction could arrive in just a few centuries.Īll three studies, published in the past year, rely on projections of the future produced by some of the world’s next-generation climate models. Another claims air pollution from forest fires in the western United States could triple by 2100. One study suggests Arctic rainfall will become dominant in the 2060s, decades earlier than expected. ![]()
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